Survivorship Bias
Focusing on successful examples while overlooking failures, leading to overly optimistic beliefs.
Examples
- Books and articles about successful entrepreneurs often highlight college dropouts like Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Steve Jobs, creating the impression that dropping out correlates with success. This ignores the vastly larger number of dropouts who didn't become billionaires.
- Engineers initially analyzed returning planes to determine where to add armor, noting where bullet holes clustered. Statistician Abraham Wald pointed out they should armor the areas showing no damage, as planes hit in those areas weren't surviving to return for analysis.
- "I woke up at 5 AM every day for a year and became successful" stories rarely account for people who tried the same routine without notable results—they simply don't write viral articles about their experiences.