Optimism Bias
Overestimating the likelihood of positive events and underestimating the likelihood of negative events.
Examples
- People consistently believe they're less likely than others to develop health problems like heart disease or cancer, even when their risk factors are identical or worse than average.
- Underestimating the time to complete a project.
- Gamblers overestimate their probability of winning and underestimate their likelihood of developing gambling problems.